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OBJECTIVE: To examine a panel of 28 biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality in a population-based cohort of men. METHODS: Starting in 1979, middle-aged men in Caerphilly underwent detailed medical examination. Subsequently 2171 men were re-examined during 1989-1993, and fasting blood samples obtained from 1911 men (88%). Fibrinogen, viscosity and white cell count (WCC), routine biochemistry tests and lipids were analysed using fresh samples. Stored aliquots were later analysed for novel biomarkers. Statistical analysis of CVD and non-CVD mortality follow-up used competing risk Cox regression models with biomarkers in thirds tested at the 1% significance level after covariate adjustment. RESULTS: During an average of 15.4 years follow-up, troponin (subhazard ratio per third 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-1.99) and B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) (subhazard ratio per third 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) showed strong trends with CVD death but not with non-CVD death. WCC and fibrinogen showed similar weaker findings. Plasma viscosity, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated positively with both CVD death and non-CVD death while total cholesterol was associated positively with CVD death but negatively with non-CVD death. C-reactive protein (C-RP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP-4) and vitamin B6 were significantly associated only with non-CVD death, the last two negatively. Troponin, BNP and IL-6 showed evidence of diminishing associations with CVD mortality through follow-up. CONCLUSION: Biomarkers for cardiac necrosis were strong, specific predictors of CVD mortality while many inflammatory markers were equally predictive of non-CVD mortality.

Original publication




Journal article


Int J Cardiol

Publication Date





113 - 118


Biomarkers, Cardiovascular mortality, Epidemiology, Non-cardiovascular mortality, Aged, Biomarkers, Cardiovascular Diseases, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Inflammation Mediators, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Wales